Gary Cornwall

Gary Cornwall

He/Him

Senior Research Economist

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A list of all the posts and pages found on the site. For you robots out there, there is an XML version available for digesting as well.

Pages

Posts

Future Blog Post

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This post will show up by default. To disable scheduling of future posts, edit config.yml and set future: false.

Blog Post number 4

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Blog Post number 3

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Blog Post number 2

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Blog Post number 1

less than 1 minute read

Published:

This is a sample blog post. Lorem ipsum I can’t remember the rest of lorem ipsum and don’t have an internet connection right now. Testing testing testing this blog post. Blog posts are cool.

publications

Placebo Response in Pediatric Anxiety Disorders: Results from the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Study (CAMS).

Published in Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology, 2017

Abstract: The aim of this study is to identify predictors of pill placebo response and to characterize the temporal course of pill placebo response in anxious youth. Data from placebo-treated patients (N=76) in the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Study (CAMS), a multisite, randomized controlled trial that examined the efficacy of cognitive-behavioral therapy, sertraline, their combination, and placebo for the treatment of separation, generalized, and social anxiety disorders, were evaluated. Multiple linear regression models identified features associated with placebo response and models were confirmed with leave-one-outcross validation. The likelihood of improvement in patients receiving pill placebo—overtime—relative to improvement associated with active treatment was determined using probabilistic Bayesian analyses. Based on a categorical definition of response (Clinical Global Impressions-Improvement Scale score <= 2), nonresponders (n=48), and pill placebo responders (n=18) didnotdiffer in age (p=0.217),sex (p=0.980),race (p=0.743), or primary diagnosis (all ps > 0.659). In terms of change in anxiety symptoms, separation anxiety disorder and treatment expectation were associated with the degree of pill placebo response.Greater probability of placebo-related anxiety symptom improvement was observed early in the course of treatment (baseline to week 4, p < 0.0001). No significant change in the probability of placebo-related improvement was observed after week 4 (weeks 4–8, p=0.07; weeks 8–12, p=0.85), whereas the probability of improvement, in general, significantly increased week over week with active treatment. Pill placebo-related improvement occurs early in the course of treatment and both clinical factors and expectation predict this improvement. Additionally,probabilistic approaches may refine our understanding and prediction of pill placebo response.

Recommended citation: Strawn JR,Dobson ET,Mills JA,Cornwall GJ,Sakolsky D,Birmaher B,Compton SN,Piacentini J,McCracken JT,Ginsburg GS, Kendall PC, Walkup JT, Albano AM,Rynn MA. "Placebo Response in Pediatric Anxiety Disorders: Results from the Child/Adolescent Anxiety Multimodal Study (CAMS)." Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology. (2017) 17.6: 501-508.
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Embracing heterogeneity: the spatial autoregressive mixture model

Published in Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2017

Abstract:In this paper a mixture distribution model is extended to include spatial dependence of the autoregressive type. The resulting model nests both spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence as special cases. A data generation process is outlined that incorporates both a finite mixture of normal distributions and spatial dependence. Whether group assignment is completely random by nature or displays some locational “pattern”, the proposed spatial-mix estimation procedure is always able to recover the true parameters. As an illustration, a basic hedonic price model is investigated that includes sub-groups of data with heterogeneous coefficients in addition to spatially clustered elements.

Recommended citation: Cornwall, Gary J., and Olivier Parent. "Embracing heterogeneity: the spatial autoregressive mixture model." Regional Science and Urban Economics . (2017) 64, 148-161.
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Buspirone in children and adolescents with anxiety: a review and Bayesian analysis of abandoned randomized controlled trials

Published in Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology, 2018

Abstract: An increasing number of abandoned clinical trials have forestalled efforts to advance the evidence base for the treatment of mood and anxiety disorders in children and adolescents. With this in mind, we sought to present and validate a Bayesian approach for the reanalysis of summary data in abandoned clinical trials and to review and re-evaluate available pharmacokinetic, tolerability, and efficacy data from two large, randomized controlled trials of buspirone in pediatric patients with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Prospective, randomized, parallel-group controlled trials of buspirone in pediatric patients with GAD as well as associated pharmacokinetic studies were identified and data were extracted. In addition to descriptive statistics, marginal posterior densities for each variable ofinterest were determined and a Monte Carlo pseudosample was generated with random draws obtained from the Student’s t-distribution to assess, with inferential statistics, differences in variables of interest. Buspirone was evaluated in one flexibly dosed (N=227) and one fixed-dose (N=341) trial in children and adolescents aged 6–17 years with a primary diagnosis of GAD.With regard to improvement in the sum of the Columbia Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia GAD items, buspirone did not separate from placebo in the fixed-dose trial at low (95%CI:-0.78to2.39, p=0.32)or high dose(95% CI:-0.87 to 1.87,p=0.47) nor did it separate from placebo in the flexibly dosed study (95% CI:-0.3 to 1.9, p=0.15). Drop out as a result of a treatment-emergent adverse event was significantly greater in buspirone-treated patients compared to placebo (p=0.011). Side effects were consistent with the known profile of buspirone with light headedness occurring more frequently in buspirone-treated patients (p < 0.001). Buspirone is well tolerated in pediatric patients with GAD, although two randomized controlled trials were underpowered to detect small effect sizes (Cohen’s d < 0.15). Finally, Bayesian approaches may facilitate re-examination of data from abandoned clinical trials.

Recommended citation: Strawn, Jeffrey R., Jeffrey A. Mills, Gary J. Cornwall, Sarah A. Mossman, Sara T. Varney, Brooks R. Keeshin, and Paul E. Croarkin. "Buspirone in children and adolescents with anxiety: a review and Bayesian analysis of abandoned randomized controlled trials." Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology. 28, no. 1 (2018): 2-9.
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Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross-Validation.

Published in Advances in Econometrics, 2019

Abstract: This paper develops a predictive approach to Granger causality testing that utilizes k-fold cross-validation and posterior simulation to perform out-of-sample testing. A Monte Carlo study indicates that the cross-validation predictive procedure has improved power in comparison to previously available out-of-sample testing procedures, matching the performance of the in-sample F-test while retaining the credibility of post sample inference. An empirical application to the Phillips curve is provided evaluating the evidence on Granger causality between inflation and unemployment rates.

Recommended citation: Cornwall, Gary J., et al. " Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross-Validation. " Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part A (Advances in Econometrics 40), (2019): 275-292.
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Data Science for Public Policy

Published in Springer International Publishing, 2021

Recommended citation: Chen, Jeffrey C., Edward A. Rubin, & Gary J. Cornwall. " Data Science for Public Policy " Springer International Publishing , 2021.
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Indirect effects and causal Inference: reconsidering regression discontinuity

Published in Journal of Spatial Econometrics, 2021

Abstract: Causal inference models, like regression discontinuity (RD) design, rely upon some variation of the no-interference assumption, where peer effects or spatial spillovers are null. Given the increased application of network, spatial, and peer effects models, this paper reconsiders RD design when this assumption is not satisfied, yielding indirect effects of the treatment in addition to the traditionally measured direct effects. Using a combination of residualization and numeric integration we develop a method using the Spatial Durbin Framework—which retains the full adjacency matrix and allows for a full accounting of these cross-sectional interactions. As an application, we revisit a well-known RD design using U.S. House of Representatives election results from 1945–1995, finding close election wins have substantial indirect effects which previously were unaccounted.

Recommended citation: Cornwall, G., & Beau Sauley. "Indirect effects and causal Inference: reconsidering regression discontinuity " Journal of Spatial Econometrics, 2(1), p.8.
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It’s The Smell: How Resolving Uncertainty about Local Disamenties Affects the Housing Market

Published in Land Economics, 2025

Abstract: This study examines how the housing market responds to closing a major environmental disamenity nearby, particularly when the credibility of local policy is uncertain. Fresh Kills Landfill (NY) provides an empirical setting to examine this question across multiple distinct events with varying credibility signals. Results from a difference-in-differences analysis show that the market prices and volumes respond sharply to credible actions (i.e., capping the landfill and park transitioning) rather than policy announcements. The findings suggest resolving uncertainty can have a powerful supply effect for housing markets, applying downward pressure on prices in the short run, thereby overshadowing plausibly positive demand effects.

Recommended citation: Chen, J., Cornwall, G., & Scott Wentland. "Its The Smell: How Resolving Uncertainty about Local Disamenties Affects the Housing Market " Land Economics, Forthcoming.
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